A lot of our local residential buyers who own Boston and International based business’s, have been telling us for the last 12 months that their outlook on Commercial leasing, lending, and sales is dire in 2010. So dire that they and we at LRG, feel another shoe is about to drop in the banking sector. First it was residential lending, now commercial. We do not see this as a threat to the current surge in Residential Sales but we do see the need for some sort of Government intervention in the near future. Similar to what we saw with residential earlier this year. (First time home buyer credit and bank bailouts).
Jason Weissman - Boston, MA
Please read what a close friend of ours, Jason Weissman, Founder & Principal, Boston Realty Advisors (Boston) is saying on Northeast Real Estate Business online magazine.
“2010 will continue to bring record low transaction volumes for commercial real estate assets in New England. The lack of credit available to finance properties and shrinking NOIs (net operating income) will produce little incentive for property owners and lenders with REO on their balance sheet to consider selling. For typical real estate owners, only property trades that are “stimulated” by a bankruptcy or foreclosure will create a sale. For lenders owning real estate, disposition of REO will be stimulated by “regulator” actions (liquidity requirement), FDIC Bank takeover, or the ability of the bank to get the par value of the debt out of the asset (or close to it). Sales transaction volume will be off between 75 percent to 85 percent from the peak years of 2006 and 2007. Principal owners of real estate will look to “pretend and extend” loan term maturities and implement “work out” talks with existing lenders. Lenders who are able will acquiesce and extend term to quality operators and owners, as opposed to proceeding with foreclosure actions and balance sheet hits. Look for signs of life in fourth quarter 2010, as declining rents flatten and as general leasing activity picks up. As bank balance sheets strengthen due to the improving macroeconomic environment, they will be more aggressive in foreclosure proceedings and selling assets. Furthermore, banks will look to liquefy 2006 and 2007 vintage loans in order to make more profitable loans in late 2010 and 2011.”
LRG Luxury Residential Group | 355 Boylston St, Boston MA 02116 | (617) 233-5800 | |
Definitely expect most of the CRE transactions in 2010 to be distressed and certainly anticipate more bank closures and strained lending. Our bank data shows that while commercial real estate loan defaults escalate and construction projects linger little has been done (so far) to clear the problems from bank’s books.